Martin McCauley writes: Next year China and India will celebrate six decades of diplomatic relations. A whole range of festivities is planned. The border war of 1962 was the nadir of the relationship. However, things have improved greatly since the 1980s. There are now regular high level political meetings; bilateral trade turnover next year may reach $60 billion; boundary demarcation talks have been underway since 2003, and there have been two joint military exercises designed to combat terrorism.Nevertheless, the two Asian giants do not really trust one another. India is particularly concerned about the Chinese military build-up in Tibet and along the border with India. Most friction occurs in Arunachal Pradesh, a state in north east India which includes Tawang, one of Tibet Buddhism’s most sacred monasteries. The Indian Army is very concerned about the large number of border violations, incursions, violations of air space and even an ambush by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers. In 2008, India recorded 270 border violations and 2,300 cases of ‘aggressive border patrolling’ by the PLA in 2008. Military infrastructure and defence forces are increasing along the border. This is of acute concern to India as it may herald an arms race in the Himalayas.
China has a strategic advantage in that its border lies along the flat Tibetan plateau. This affords China the upper hand in case of a military emergency as it can reinforce its units there quickly. The Middle Kingdom is constructing an extensive network of roads, railways, airfields, pipelines and bases which may point to offensive military operations. China, according to some reports, has deployed intercontinental missiles in northern Tibet which could hit targets in northern India.
The Indian Army, on the other hand, is deployed in high mountains which require negotiating steep valleys, thick jungles and difficult passes. Some Indian Army posts can only be reached in favourable weather and other have to be supplied by helicopters. It is quite clear, that from a logistics point of view, the PLA is in a much more favourable position than the Indian Army.
China has already built a long distance railway line from Beijing to Lhasa, the Tibetan capital. This line will be extended to Xigaze, south of Lhasa, and then to Yatung. Lhasa would then be connected to Nyingchi, just north of Arunachal Pradesh. The railway would then run along the Brahmaputra River to Kunming, in Yunnan province.
China has announced plans to widen the Karakorum highway, which links the Middle Kingdom to Pakistan, from the present 10 metres to 30 metres. This will permit heavy vehicles to use it throughout the year. According to Indian sources, the PLA has deployed 13 border defence regiments, a division in the eastern sector and a division in the western sector in the high Tibetan plateau.
The PLA’s Air Force has built several new airfields. They can support fighter aircraft but also have the capability of airlifting a division (20,000 troops), air drop a brigade (3,500 men) and helicopter lifts of approximately two battalions. In August 2009, the PLA began a major military exercise which is to last two months. It involves 50,000 troops from southern China. One goal is to conduct operations over a long distance. There are now trains capable of 350 km an hour and they can ferry troops quickly to a meeting point.
The Indian Army is to deploy two divisions (between 25,000 and 30,000 men) along the border with Arunachal. The two divisions have mountain warfare expertise and will increase the number of troops along the border to 120,000.
Two squadrons (18 advanced fighter jets each) of the Indian Air Force are being deployed in Tizpur, 150 km south of the Chinese frontier, in Arunachal Pradesh. Four or five airfields are being upgraded near the Karakorum highway.
Pangong Lake is located at an altitude of 14,500 feet: 90 km are in China and 45 km in India. There is another 5 k which is claimed by both sides. Regular incidents occur but the conflict is kept low key. When the two nations’ boats confront one another they raise flags and, in translation, shout: ‘Indians and Chinese are brothers!’
The Indians are concerned about the modernisation of the PLA and the published increase in defence spending of 14.9 per cent this year. Analysts assess defence spending as much higher than the published figures.
India has stated it has no intention of competing with China in military spending. Trust, according to one Indian military source, cannot be built as long as the border problems remain. India is concerned that China has resolved its border disputes with its other neighbours but not with it. It is dragging its feet in the Himalayas. This may be a signal that it is biding its time. It is developing a huge military infrastructure and the main question is: why? Will the Middle Kingdom sometime in the future seize Arunachal Pradesh and present India with a fait accompli? Or is the buildup more to do with defending Tibet and Xinjian in an emergency?
These are very worrying time for New Delhi.